Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya          下载免费PDF全文

Vincent Omondi Odongo  Christiaan van der Tol  Pieter R. van Oel  Frank M. Meins  Robert Becht  Japheth Onyando  Zhongbo Su 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3276-3293

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

非平稳标准化降水蒸散指数构建及中国未来干旱时空格局   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

温庆志  孙鹏  张强  姚蕊 《地理学报》2020,75(7):1465-1482

旱灾是一种致灾因子与成害机理均非常复杂的自然灾害,也是目前对其检测与风险防御最为困难的自然灾害种类之一。随着全球气候变化,干旱的变化逐渐趋于非平稳化,水文气象序列的非平稳性已有广泛研究,但在干旱检测指标中却鲜有考虑。基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和非平稳性理论,构建非平稳性标准化降水蒸散指数（NSPEI）并进行适用性评价,利用NSPEI评估未来不同排放情景下中国气象干旱时空格局演变规律。结果表明：① 非平稳性站点集中在东北平原、黄淮海平原、长三角地区、青藏高原及周边区域,NSPEI拟合最优的站点占中国气象站点的88%（2177个站点）。② SPEI对温度较为敏感,在评估未来干旱变化时会高估干旱强度和持续时间性,而NSPEI能够克服这一弱点,较SPEI可更好的检测中国气象干旱,且能很好的刻画中国未来干旱变化。③ 低、高排放情景下中国北方干旱加剧,南方呈湿润化趋势;中排放情景下中国北方湿润化趋势明显,而中国南方则呈干旱化。基于NSPEI干旱检测结果,中高排放情景下中国未来极端干湿历时与发生频率均呈增加趋势。  相似文献   

Long‐term streamflow trends in Hawai'i and implications for native stream fauna     

Hannah M. Clilverd  Yin‐Phan Tsang  Dana M. Infante  Abigail J. Lynch  Ayron M. Strauch 《水文研究》2019,33(5):699-719

Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.  相似文献   

Response of Microbial Communities in Soil to Multi-level Warming in a Highland Barley System of the Lhasa River     

FU Gang  SUN Wei  LI Shaowei  ZHONG Zhiming 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):373-378

No studies have examined the effect of experimental warming on the microbial biomass and community composition of soil in agricultural ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Thus it is unclear whether the influences of experimental warming on microbial communities in soil are related to warming magnitude in croplands on this Plateau. This study performed warming experiment (control, low- and high-level) in a highland barley system of the Lhasa River in May 2014 to examine the correlation between the response of microbial communities in soil to warming and warming magnitude. Topsoil samples (0-10 and 10-20 cm) were collected on September 14, 2014. Experimental warming at both low and high levels significantly increased soil temperature by 1.02 ℃ and 1.59 ℃, respectively at the depth of 15 cm. Phospho lipid fatty acid (PLFA) method was used to determine the microbial community in soil. The low-level experimental warming did not significantly affect the soil’s total PLFA, fungi, bacteria, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), actinomycetes, gram-positive bacteria (G⁺), gram-negative bacteria (G^-), protozoa, the ratio of fungi to bacteria (F/B ratio), and ratio of G⁺ to G^- (G⁺/G^- ratio) at the 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth. The low-level experimental warming also did not significantly alter the composition of microbial community in soil at the 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth. The high-level experimental warming significantly increased total PLFA by 74.4%, fungi by 78.0%, bacteria by 74.0%, AMF by 66.9%, actinomycetes by 81.4%, G⁺ by 67.0% and G^- by 74.4% at the 0-10 cm depth rather than at 10-20 cm depth. The high-level experimental warming significantly altered microbial community composition in soil at the 0-10 cm depth rather than at 10-20 cm depth. Our findings suggest that the response of microbial communities in soil to warming varied with warming magnitudes in the highland barley system of the Lhasa River.  相似文献   

Impact of the Pacific–Japan Teleconnection Pattern on July Sea Fog over the Northwestern Pacific: Interannual Variations and Global Warming Effect     

Jingchao LONG  Suping ZHANG  Yang CHEN  Jingwu LIU  Geng HAN 《大气科学进展》2016,33(4):511-521

The northwestern Pacific(NWP) is a fog-prone area, especially the ocean east of the Kuril Islands. The present study analyzes how the Pacific–Japan(PJ) teleconnection pattern influences July sea fog in the fog-prone area using independent datasets. The covariation between the PJ index and sea fog frequency(SFF) index in July indicates a close correlation, with a coefficient of 0.62 exceeding the 99% confidence level. Composite analysis based on the PJ index, a case study, and model analysis based on GFDL-ESM2 M, show that in high PJ index years the convection over the east of the Philippines strengthens and then triggers a Rossby wave, which propagates northward to maintain an anticyclonic anomaly in the midlatitudes,indicating a northeastward shift of the NWP subtropical high. The anticyclonic anomaly facilitates the formation of relatively stable atmospheric stratification or even an inversion layer in the lower level of the troposphere, and strengthens the horizontal southerly moisture transportation from the tropical–subtropical oceans to the fog-prone area. On the other hand, a greater meridional SST gradient over the cold flank of the Kuroshio Extension, due to ocean downwelling, is produced by the anticyclonic wind stress anomaly. Both of these two aspects are favorable for the warm and humid air to cool, condense, and form fog droplets, when air masses cross the SST front. The opposite circumstances occur in low PJ index years, which are not conducive to the formation of sea fog. Finally, a multi-model ensemble mean projection reveals a prominent downward trend of the PJ index after the 2030 s, implying a possible decline of the SFF in this period.  相似文献   

Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013     

Run Liu  Shaw Chen Liu  Chein-Jung Shiu  Jun Li  Yuanhang Zhang 《大气科学进展》2016,33(2):164-174

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.  相似文献   

Long-Term Variability of the Wind Field over the Indian Ocean Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis     

R. Rashmi  V. Polnikov  F. Pogarskii  I. Gomorev  V. Samiksha 《大气与海洋》2016,54(5):505-518

A detailed study of long-term variability of winds using 30 years of data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) over the Indian Ocean has been carried out by partitioning the Indian Ocean into six zones based on local wind extrema. The trend of mean annual wind speed averaged over each zone shows a significant increase in the equatorial region, the Southern Ocean, and the southern part of the trade winds. This indicates that the Southern Ocean winds and the southeast trade winds are becoming stronger. However, the trend for the Bay of Bengal is negative, which might be caused by a weakening of the monsoon winds and northeast trade winds. Maximum interannual variability occurs in the Arabian Sea due to monsoon activity; a minimum is observed in the subtropical region because of the divergence of winds. Wind speed variations in all zones are weakly correlated with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). However, the equatorial Indian Ocean, the southern part of the trade winds, and subtropical zones show a relatively strong positive correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), indicating that the SOI has a zonal influence on wind speed in the Indian Ocean. Monsoon winds have a decreasing trend in the northern Indian Ocean, indicating monsoon weakening, and an increasing trend in the equatorial region because of enhancement of the westerlies. The negative trend observed during the non-monsoon period could be a result of weakening of the northeast trade winds over the past few decades. The mean flux of kinetic energy of wind (FKEW) reaches a minimum of about 100?W?m^?2 in the equatorial region and a maximum of about 1500?W?m^?2 in the Southern Ocean. The seasonal variability of FKEW is large, about 1600?W?m^?2, along the coast of Somalia in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum monthly variability of the FKEW field averaged over each zone occurs during boreal summer. During the onset and withdrawal of monsoon, FKEW is as low as 50?W?m^?2. The Southern Ocean has a large variation of about 1280?W?m^?2 because of strong westerlies throughout the year.  相似文献   

基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

肖冰霜  马玉霞  赵天保  颜书豪 《气象》2016,42(3):339-346

近百年来,全球气候变暖。这与暖日和暖夜增加,冷日和冷夜减少相关联。文章研究结果进一步证实了这一发现。本文基于1960-2012年中国大陆542个台站均一化气温资料,通过将中国大陆划分为8个次区域,利用百分位定义法计算了极端温度指数序列,同时,运用时间趋势分析法,对中国大陆各区域极端温度和极端温度指数的时空分布及变化趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,从地理分布而言,中国大陆在过去53年除西南地区外,大部分地区最低和最高温度有显著的升高趋势,其中,东北温度升高最为明显;从季节而言,冬季极端温度升高最为明显,夏季升高最少;最低温度明显升高,最高温度也有所升高,但是最低温度的升高幅度更大。冷夜和冷日出现频率呈减少趋势,暖夜和暖日出现频率呈增加趋势,其中以冷夜指数变化最为突出,均呈现一种区域差异的现象。本文利用更新的资料验证了前人的工作,也进一步分区分析,结果可为更多地区评估以及进一步的相关研究提供参考。  相似文献   

新疆哈密地区近54a日照时数的均一性分析及其影响因素     

杨艳玲  秦榕  卢新玉  杨红艳  何亚平 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(3):72-76

以新疆哈密地区1961-2014年6个气象观测站地面气象观测资料为依据,利用线性趋势分析、相关性分析、M-K突变检验分析等方法,对哈密地区近54a四季及年平均日照时数的变化趋势、异常年份、突变检验及影响因子进行分析,得出以下结论：近54a哈密地区春季与年平均日照时数均呈上升趋势,而夏、秋、冬季变化比较平稳;年日照时数异常偏少出现在1998年,但从未出现过异常偏多年;年日照时数在1973年和2008年发生两次突变,减少、增加趋势不显著;年、春季日照时数增加与低云量的减少关系密切。  相似文献   

阿尔山地区积雪变化特征     

龙菲  何文英  陈洪滨 《气象与环境科学》2016,39(2):82-89

选取阿尔山气象站1981—2015年冷季(10月—次年4月)气象资料,利用滑动平均、线性倾向估计和Mann-Kendall等方法,对年最大积雪深度、积雪日数、气温和降水量进行分析。结果表明,阿尔山地区年最大积雪深度主要发生在1月至3月,其中2月份概率最大,达50%;34 a内最大积雪深度呈上升趋势(2.77 cm/10a),年平均增加0.98%,且年最大积雪深度在1998年发生了突变,即在1998年之前增长缓慢,在2000年以后上升趋势显著。积雪日数的统计分析表明,初始积雪日数和有效积雪日数呈现略微减少趋势,而稳定积雪日数有微弱的增加趋势;通常初始积雪日数比有效积雪日数大30天左右。年最大积雪深度与稳定积雪时期的降水量、积雪日数、日照时数有显著的相关性,相关系数分别为0.647、0.515、0.584,但与稳定积雪时期的气温没有明显的相关性。在全球变暖的大环境下,积雪深度随着降水量和日照时数的增加而增加,且积雪深度受降水量的影响大于日照时数的影响。  相似文献